2008

Hello all,

It's been quite some time, hasn't it. I'm writing because I need to intellectual exchange here and some different perspectives. Who do you plan to vote for (or are at least thinking about) in the 2008 presidential primaries. I'm asking, because I was talking to Sarah the other day and she told me she was campaigned for Obama, which surprised me. I'm not a huge Obama fan. I would in no world vote in the Republican primary so let me just give you my thoughts of some of the democrats running (and not running yet) to start the dialogue:

Hillary Clinton - Let me start here: I've read a couple of the anti-Hillary books (though not the most recent) and I find them complete trash. I do not believe her motives are awful; I do not believe she is a cold and overscripted person. For the longest time I wrote off the possibility of voting for the good Senator because I believed she would be unelectable in a general election (polls still confirm this, she trails Giuliani and McCain and her unfavorables are higher than her favorables). However, looking at the evidence, she had a very similar situation when she ran for the Senate in New York and she ended up winning. Also, as the Democratic Party had gotten to know her more in this cycle she has only polled better and better. During the debates she seems the most presidential and intelligent. Also, the issue for me really is Iraq. I want to get out of Iraq, but I do not want to do so in a completely irresponsible way. I think Senator Clinton's plan to leave residual troops for logistics and training purposes is a responsible attempt at a dignified exit. I am very uncomfortable with her still because of the general election. I won't support any candidate until November. By then Al Gore would have gotten into the race or not and Mayor Mike Bloomberg would have announced if he was running. If Bloomberg runs as an independent I could easily vote for Hillary since I'd believe that she would then win easily. On the whole, I agree with a lot of what she has to say and would certainly be willing to return to the fiscal discipline of the Clinton years. As a sidenote, as a student of history I would love to have a former First Lady elected president - imagine the books that would be written!

Barack Obama - Let me put it simply: there is no Obamamania in the Mariano house. I just worked hard campaigning for Deval Patrick for Governor in MA and he resembles Senator Obama in many ways. They both were inexperienced and offered rhetorically pleasing visions of what America or MA could be and ran grassroots campaigns. When he entered office he did nothing at all and suffered a series of self-inflicted scandals. In every way, I feel let down. Unfortunately, that makes me less likely to take "a chance on [the audacity of] hope" again. In terms of substance I do not see much from Obama and I sincerely hope that changes. I would also offer that the latest national polls have him trailing Giuliani by 12% and McCain by 8% (he polls at 39% and 38% respectively). I would only ask that TASPers not get infatuated with him and make sure they have the right guy before they go head over heels (that is not an attack on anyone, merely a word of caution from someone who made that mistake).

John Edwards - I admire John Edwards for putting poverty back on the political agenda, at least for the Democrats. However, as he goes further to the left on the war I see him as a George McGovern figure who I find both irresponsible and unelectable. I think he also lacks the substance that Hillary has in terms of both vision and general ability. However, national polls show he is the only democrat of the "top three" that consistently beats both McCain and Giuliani. That having been said, I believe Mitt Romney will be the republican nominee.

Bill Richardson - I love Bill Richardson on almost every issue. I would be ready to vote for him in most situations. In fact, immediately after 2004 I endorsed him and probably told many of you this past summer how great I think he is. However, I think his plan for Iraq is dangerous and irresponsible. He wants every single troop out of Iraq by the end of this summer. His polling in Iowa and New Hampshire is now in double digits and I would be very surprised if he did not go on to be nominated for the Vice Presidency. I would love Al Gore to be president and give Bill Richardson the joint job of Vice President and Secretary of State (constitutional questions suspended for a moment). Unfortunately, I think he is the perfect candidate except for his Iraq proposal.

Joe Biden - I like Joe Biden. He seems like a great guy and a talented statesman. His polls in early states and national are disappointing; however, I think that he would be a terrific president. His plan for a federated state in Iraq, I think shows his critical thinking and ability to solve problems in a unique way. That having been said, I have no idea if it would work. I think the passion he showed on the last debate when discussing Darfur was very moving but I'm torn on the issue of whether American should unilaterally send a military force into Sudan. Once I decide this issue for myself I will know how I feel about Biden a lot more clearly.

Bloomberg/Hagel or Hagel/Bloomberg - The two are rumored to be considering running as an independent ticket for president. There is a WONDERFUL article of their possible influence here:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/electoral_chaos_how_michael_bloomberg_could_deadlock_both_the_electoral_college_and_the_house_of_representatives I think the idea of the two nominal republicans teaming up for a ticket that represents social liberalism and fiscal disciple would be very tempting for me. I'd strongly consider voting for them.

Al Gore - I truly hope he runs and I think he will at the start of November. Unfortunately, I think he will lose but he will certainly have my vote. He is the guy. He has been right on so many different issues and he has the type of foresight and experience that we need the next president to have. As Joe Biden says, the next president will have no margin of Al Gore. The bottom line is: I trust Al Gore.


My prediction for 2008:

Al Gore will run and lose.

Democrats
President: Hillary Clinton
Vice President: Bill Richardson

Republicans
President: Mitt Romney
Vice President: Mike Huckabee (maybe Rudy Giuliani)

Idependents
President: Mike Bloomberg
Vice President: Chuck Hagel

I believe Clinton-Richardson would win in a landslide with all 3 tickets winning electoral votes and Romney-Huckabee coming in 3rd.



WHAT DO YOU THINK?!?!?!


-Anthony W. Mariano